Nowcasting earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

Abstract Large devastating events such as earthquakes often display frequency–magnitude statistics that exhibit power-law distribution. In this study, we implement a recently developed method called earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al. in Earth Space Sci 3: 480–486, 2016) to evaluate the current state of hazards seismic prone Sulawesi province, Indonesia. The technique considers statistical behavior small event counts between successive large earthquakes, known natural times, infer progression cycles defined region. To develop natural-time Island, employ four probability models, namely exponential, exponentiated gamma, and Weibull Statistical inference times reveals (i) exponential distribution has best representation observed data; (ii) estimated nowcast scores (%) corresponding M ? 6.5 for 21 cities are Bau-bau (41), Bitung (70), Bone (44), Buton (39), Donggala (63), Gorontalo (49), Kendari (27), Kolaka (30), Luwuk (56), Makassar (52), Mamuju (58), Manado Morowali (37), Palopo (34), Palu (62), Pare-pare (82), Polewali (61), Poso (42), Taliabu (55), Toli-toli Watampone (55); (iii) results broadly stable against changes magnitude threshold area local regions. presently revealed stationary Poissonian nature underlying brings out key conclusion risk is same all city regions despite their different levels cycle realized through scores. addition, though potential will be updated with occurrence each respective region, remains throughout Island.